Report: Robbie Avila could leave Lakers to return to college

Lakers Daily
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IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Robbie Avila’s road to the NBA might be taking a detour nobody saw coming when he signed with the Los Angeles Lakers in June. Basketball insider Adam Zagoria reported Saturday morning that the undrafted big man is “waiting to see what his options are” after a federal court ruling granted him a fifth year of college eligibility, noting that a special transfer portal window runs from Aug. 3-10.

That is a remarkable sentence to write about a player who agreed to a training camp deal with the Lakers barely five weeks ago. Avila, the 6-foot-10 Saint Louis product whose thick-rimmed glasses and old-school post game earned him the nickname “Cream Abdul-Jabbar” and a genuine cult following, was supposed to spend this fall fighting for a roster spot in El Segundo.

Instead, he may spend next week deciding whether the NBA can wait another year.

The ruling that changed everything overnight

The doorway opened Friday in a Denver courtroom. U.S. District Judge Charlotte Sweeney issued a class-wide preliminary injunction restoring a fifth season of eligibility to every Division I athlete from the high school Class of 2022 who exhausted four years this past spring, according to the Associated Press via ESPN.

Sweeney wrote that the affected players “will suffer irreparable harm without” the injunction, rejecting the NCAA’s argument that applying the change retroactively would throw rosters into disarray.

The decision undercuts the NCAA’s plan to phase in its new five-for-five eligibility model starting with athletes who enroll in fall 2027, and the organization is expected to appeal.

In the meantime, the practical consequence is immediate: a special transfer portal window opens Monday and closes Aug. 10, giving hundreds of players who thought their college careers ended in March a compressed nine-day runway to reverse course.

Avila fits the ruling’s class precisely. He started his college career at Indiana State in 2022, followed coach Josh Schertz to Saint Louis and closed his fourth season this spring as Atlantic 10 Player of the Year, averaging 12.8 points, 4.5 rebounds and 4.1 assists per game while leading the Billikens to a 27-4 record.

Until Friday, that was the end of the road. Now it might only be a pause.

What Avila’s Lakers deal actually pays

To understand why this is a real decision and not a formality, start with what Avila actually signed. His Exhibit 10 contract is a one-year, nonguaranteed deal at the league minimum that can be converted to a two-way contract, with bonus money that can reach up to $75,000 becoming guaranteed if that conversion happens.

In plain terms, the realistic outcome of his deal was never a guaranteed NBA salary. It was an invitation to training camp, and if he did not crack the 15-man roster, a developmental year with the South Bay Lakers where the $75,000 bonus functions as the primary financial reward.

That same Yahoo report noted the skill set that made the gamble worthwhile for Los Angeles: Avila shot 41 percent from 3-point range as a senior, and his passing at 6-foot-10 drew the flattering, if generous, stylistic comparisons that followed him through college.

He remains a legitimately interesting developmental big. The question the court just forced is whether developing on a G League salary beats developing on a college campus in the NIL era, where a nationally recognizable fifth-year star — one who was fielding endorsement interest in his eyewear alone as far back as his Indiana State days — would command real earning power.

No reporting has attached a dollar figure to what Avila could make in college next season, so any specific comparison would be speculation, but the general direction of that math is not hard to guess for a player with his name recognition.

The roster math was already working against him

Matisse Thybulle

Here is the part of this story that is specifically a Lakers problem. Even before Friday’s ruling, Avila’s path to the opening night roster ran uphill through a numbers game.

As of late July, the Lakers had 16 guaranteed contracts on the books once the Kevon Looney and Matisse Thybulle deals became official, meaning at least one player has to go before the season simply to reach the league’s 15-man limit, and the team sat just under $2 million below the luxury tax line.

A team that must shed salary to get legal has no obvious lane for a nonguaranteed camp big to leapfrog onto the roster, and the frontcourt Avila would be fighting through got dramatically more crowded this summer.

Walker Kessler arrived via sign-and-trade, Looney signed on behind him and Sandro Mamukelashvili adds another skilled big to the rotation mix. The honest read in June was that Avila was a South Bay project with a puncher’s chance at a call-up.

The honest read in August is the same, except now there is a competing offer on the table that did not exist a week ago. None of this diminishes what Avila showed the organization this summer. He became the most popular Laker in Las Vegas almost immediately, with crowds chanting for him during summer league even as his minutes stayed sparse.

The fan equity is real, and it is exactly the kind of following that translates to NIL value if he walks back through the college door.

Nine days and two very different futures

So what does the decision actually look like from Avila’s side of the table? Staying means betting on himself against a stacked frontcourt and a roster that is over the limit, with the G League as the probable landing spot and the NBA dream kept alive at close range.

Leaving means a year as one of the most famous players in college basketball, a real income opportunity and the chance to enter next summer’s draft cycle with another season of tape — though it also means trusting that the NBA interest survives a return trip to school, and that Sweeney’s ruling survives the NCAA’s expected appeal.

That appeal is the genuine wildcard here, because a player who commits to a college roster on the strength of an injunction is exposed if a higher court later disturbs it.

For the Lakers, the stakes are modest but not zero. An Exhibit 10 costs the team essentially nothing, which is exactly why losing one stings less on the cap sheet than in the development pipeline.

Avila was the most intriguing lottery ticket in their camp class, and the South Bay program loses its headliner if he goes. There is no reporting that the Lakers are working to sway his decision one way or the other, and given the roster crunch, it is fair to wonder how hard they could credibly sell a path that their own contract count contradicts.

The portal window closes Aug. 10, which means this resolves quickly one way or another. Whatever Avila chooses, his situation has become the cleanest test case yet for a question the eligibility lawsuits have forced on every fringe NBA prospect: When a fifth college year pays more than a camp deal, what exactly is an Exhibit 10 worth?

For one of the most beloved players to come through the college game in years, the Lakers are about to find out.

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